In retrospect, the Democrat Party came to a strategy to possibly win the presidency in spite of a far left policy agenda. Their strategy was to make the election a referendum on Donald Trump – and explicitly not on policy.

Almost four years of fruitless investigations, calling him the worst names possible ,i.e., racist, unfeeling, a Russian spy, etc.  The idea was to make the election about Trump’s character and demeanor with the clear expectation that he would receive the continuous support of virtually the entire media. Trump’s personality and comments energized his supporters but appalled his detractors.

However, the party knew if Bernie Sanders was the nominee, the policies of the Democrat Party would be challenged and the election no longer a referendum but a choice between different views of our country and vastly different policies. In that contest, they knew Bernie would lose big. They needed to come up with a candidate who would seem stable and wise who could be a good front man for the Party. And, of course, Joe Biden was there. A nice guy, not very smart, having episodes that looked like some kind of mental deterioration, but not threatening and avuncular looking.

With the pandemic continuing, he could keep out of the public eye, say something saccharine from time to time and let Donald reinforce his image and then lose.

What could possibly go wrong?

As it is turning out, the answer is “a lot”. First, and most importantly, the pandemic seems to be continuing at a lower level. There is the development of therapeutic drugs, the probability of several vaccines, and a much lower death rate – one of the lowest in the world. Second,the DNC put on a dull, negative convention saying virtually nothing about policy or what was happening in cities across the country. They emphasized what they described as institutional, pervasive racism affecting every aspect of American life. Very negative and unhopeful. Then, the RNC put on a great convention, effectively dealing with the canard of Trump racism and humanizing a polarizing President. It was hopeful and upbeat, with some truly uplifting moments and outstanding speakers emphasizing the positive nature of our country and a good future.

And, finally, BLM (the organization, not the slogan) and Antifa used the cover of somewhat peaceful protests to demonstrate what anarchy looks like and the people who vote didn’t like it. More, they saw that the Democrat establishment couldn’t bring themselves to condemn the riots, looting and anarchy in so many cities – virtually all of which was run by Democrat mayors, black police chiefs, and Democrat governors. So, changes in the state of the pandemic, the effectiveness of the RNC convention, the rioting, looting, anarchy and demands for conformity have moved the presidential race from one of Trump’s personality to one of policy differences.

Up to now, Biden has been utilizing a “prevent defense” strategy designed to hold his lead and win by having Trump lose. Biden had used “the science” to campaign from his home, read the teleprompter, say little and hold no unscripted press conferences. He can do that no longer and announced in three weeks he will actually go on the campaign trail. That’s risky for him but so is continuing his current strategy. However, Trump has made a couple of first downs against this prevent defense and forced him to change. It is now getting interesting.