Harvey’s Introduction
A very interesting essay showing the difference in economic recovery is not related to lockdowns, except in some surprising ways.
Category: Covid-19
Harvey’s Introduction
The scholars at American Enterprise Institute are among the brightest and most thoughtful in America. In this compilation, nine of them offer their views on what the next president needs to do. They cover a range of topics from governmental reform, the pandemic, the looming debt crisis and others. I have not posted each of these essays but you can read them by clicking on the appropriate link.
Harvey’s Introduction
The media reports over 200,000 Americans have died from Covid 19. However, how causes of deaths are recorded affects the actual number. The only number we know for sure is the total number of deaths, Causes are often complicated, so to isolate the effect of a pandemic, one needs to look at excess deaths, I,e. the number of people who died above what we would have expected. The author reports this number of excess deaths and disaggregates the number to Covid and to the lockdown separately. In the article, he has links to more detailed data, which is very informative. However, I could not transfer those links. You can see where they are as you read, but to actually link, you’ll need to go to the City Journal copy.
Harvey’s Introduction
This declaration, by thousands of eminent scientists, point out that our focus on reducing the direct effects of Covid 19 – hospitalizations and deaths from the disease – have enormous negative unintended consequences. They outline a much better policy regime. As Joe Biden continually says “Follow the Science”. Our government, with the notable exception of the President, have been following the wrong science. The experts charged with leading the health care response had one criterion at the outset – reduce hospitalizations, followed by a second after the first was reached – defeat the virus. Apparently, they were not charged with considering the health and economic effects of their focus. My guess is they did so because they and the media could measure their results against these criteria and there was no effective way of measuring the negative effects of their draconian policies. The consequences have been enormous. For Heaven’s sake its time to stop this idiocy.
Harvey’s Introduction
At the beginning of the pandemic our health experts were concerned that the number of hospitalizations would overwhelm our health care system and people could die by the millions. Remember, the expert models showed a possible death toll of 2 to 3 million people in this country. So, we shut down the economy, threw millions of people out of work to avoid that tragedy. It became clear relatively early on that the hospitalizations would not reach the anticipated numbers and virtually no hospitals were overwhelmed. The question then became, when could we open up again and let people resume more elements of a normal life. It also became clear that the death rate varied enormously by age and co-morbidities, So, how do we balance all that we know to protect the most vulnerable and open up the economy as much as possible. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have been two schools of thought on this issue. One was we have to defeat the virus before we open the economy. Joe Biden is the leading political proponent of this position, with many of the Democrat led states agreeing. Incidentally, none of them have ever defined what they mean by the word “defeat”. In any event, those states had a longer and deeper lockdown than other states, largely Republican led. Enough time has passed so that we can begin to understand whether the pain of a longer and deeper lockdown was worth it. The authors here studied the issue and have written a preliminary analysis.
Harvey’s Introduction
An interesting take on the reported Covid 19 data. One general point: If you are healthy and have no co-morbitities, the chances of you’re dying is a rounding error of zero. You can have the virus and you may pass it on but you are generally very safe.
Harvey’s Introduction
Mr. Philipson points ought that the concern over whether people choose or don’t choose to take the vaccine is misplaced. The question is whether the right people take it.
Harvey’s Introduction
This is an interesting analysis of CDC data on the course of the Covid pandemic. He argues persuasively, while the disease will continue, it will no longer be a pandemic
Harvey’s Introduction
I can’t vouch for the logic in this article, but it does raise an interesting point: how many deaths, above what would normally occur, are due to the Covid pandemic? Conceivably, some deaths are being brought forward in time. I can’t tell. Your thoughts are welcome.